[SMM Hot Topic] Steel Exports Pull Back Again, Where Will September Lead?

[SMM Hot Topic] Steel Exports Pull Back Again, Where Will September Lead?

On September 8, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China's steel exports in August 2025 reached 9.51 million mt, down 326,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 3.3% MoM. From January to August, cumulative steel exports totaled 77.49 million mt, up 10.0% YoY.

In August, China imported 500,000 mt of steel, up 48,000 mt MoM, an increase of 10.6% MoM. From January to August, cumulative steel imports stood at 3.977 million mt, down 14.1% YoY.

Overview of Steel Import and Export Data in August

• China's Steel Exports Edge Down

China's total steel exports in August fell 3.3% MoM. According to the SMM survey, domestic steel mills' HRC export plans in August amounted to 964,000 mt, compared with actual exports of 1.11 million mt in July, marking a 13.15% MoM decline. From July to August, domestic steel prices strengthened, prompting some mills to adjust overseas strategies, prioritizing domestic trade shipments, leading to reduced export orders. However, as new tax declaration rules will take effect from October 1, 2025, some MDs accelerated shipment schedules, limiting the overall MoM export decline.

• China's Steel Imports Rise MoM in August

In August, China imported 500,000 mt of steel, up 48,000 mt MoM, an increase of 10.6% MoM. From January to August, cumulative steel imports totaled 3.977 million mt, down 14.1% YoY.

• Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports

According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in August 2025 stood at 49.9%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, nearing the 50 mark. The global manufacturing PMI rose MoM but remained below 50 for the sixth consecutive month, approaching the 50 mark this month, indicating that while global manufacturing has not shifted from its weak recovery trend, the recovery momentum strengthened MoM. Currently, the global economic recovery is progressing slowly amid fluctuations. Trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt the global economy, yet countries worldwide are increasingly seeking new cooperation pathways and optimizing supply chains, demonstrating growing resilience in global economic recovery. According to China's manufacturing PMI data, the new export orders index in August stood at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, indicating a slight improvement in market demand.

World Steel Association data shows that global crude steel production across 70 reporting countries reached 150.1 million mt in July 2025, down 1.3% YoY. China's crude steel output was 79.66 million mt (down 4.0% YoY), while production in other regions totaled 70.44 million mt. On a cumulative YoY basis, only Africa and North America recorded increased crude steel production, while all other regions saw declines.

As of September 5, 2025, FOB export prices for HRC from India, Turkey, and CIS were $530/mt, $540/mt, and $480/mt respectively, compared to China's FOB quote of $478/mt. China's price differentials stood at $52/mt, $62/mt, and $2/mt against these markets, with MoM changes in export competitiveness at -27.78%, +111.11%, and +31.92% respectively.

Per SMM survey data, China's steel mills planned HRC exports for September reached 935,000 mt, up 11,000 mt (1.2% MoM) from August's actual exports. Improved production margins prompted pace adjustments, while recent customs scrutiny boosted order intake for some mills, driving the planned volume increase.

SMM shipping data indicates China's port departures totaled 12.04 million mt in August, up 6% MoM. August steel export orders rebounded significantly from July, attributable to enhanced price competitiveness for legitimate orders and traders' active pursuit of taxed orders for alternative products. The overall order intake remained moderate as export price advantages improved MoM. However, in terms of actual export performance, SMM expects steel product exports to pull back in September, primarily due to weak order-taking in July.

SMM Steel Product Export Orders (10,000 mt) - Excerpted from SMM Export Weekly Report

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